You may have heard you have to bet big to win big. While true in theory, it’s not the best strategy. When it comes to Super Bowl betting, there’s a world of strategy, trends, and options available.
It’s important to have realistic expectations. That said, there are things you can do to increase your chances. Researching about the different ways you can bet and associated trends is essential.
Setting a budget and a consistent narrative strategy is also key. Chaining together smart bets increases the risk-reward potential in a calculated way. As long as you keep your cool and have a plan, you’ll be more likely to win big.
Take a look at our guide below to learn more.
Understanding the 3 Main Betting Lines
Thanks to less strict sports gambling laws, more people than ever before are getting into Super Bowl betting. Before you think about winning big on your Super Bowl 2022 bets, you need to know how the three main betting lines work. The bookies make their predictions when the NFC and AFC Championship Games finish.
The lines they set in those first few hours will move slightly over the 2-week ramp-up to Super Sunday. That said, most of the changes in odds will happen within those first few hours or the last 48 hours before the game. The three major lines are point spread, the money line, and the Over/Under total.
The Point Spread
The point spread is by far the most common one people go for. The two teams get designated as a favorite and an underdog, and then a margin of victory is set – i.e., the spread. The favorite gets a negative value, while the underdog gets a positive one.
If the underdog either wins straight up or loses by less than the point spread, the underdog covers. If the favorite wins by more than the spread suggests, they cover. The side you bet to cover has to beat these predictions.
The Moneyline and Over/Under Total
The money line is the most straightforward, making it the most boring. This is straight-up choosing who you think will win the whole thing. The odds always stack against the underdog, which makes them a higher risk yet higher reward pick.
The final major line is the Over/Under total. This is betting on whether the game’s total score will be higher or lower than what the oddsmakers predict. Like with the point spread, tying the prediction results in a refunded bet.
Playing Prop Bets
Super Bowl betting is, of course, about more than those three lines. You have prop bets, which can be both fun and good ways to win big. The “prop” stands for “proposition” and refers to specific predictions you want to make or bet on.
These can be anything from who wins the MVP to what color Gatorade gets dunked on the winning coach. It’s common to see prop bets on stats like passing yards, sacks, or interceptions. The great thing about prop bets is you can combo them with over/under or head-to-head type predictions.
For example, you could bet there will be more than X interceptions or that the favorite will beat the underdog in pass completion by a certain margin. Even simple yes or no bets, like whether the coach notices the Gatorade bath coming, are fair game.
Betting With Parlays
Parlays are a great way to amp up the reward, but also the risk. These involve stringing together multiple bets into a single package. For example, you could bet the underdog will win by a margin of X points and that the winning QB will get MVP.
If you made these three bets as a parlay, then the payout for winning them all is higher than if you played them alone. However, if a single one busts, the whole package is a loss.
Mitigate Risk and Increase Payouts with Teasers
When it comes to super bowl betting tips, teasers are often forgotten. They can be a pretty good way of mitigating risk on a packaged bet while still getting a decent payout. Teasers work by picking multiple bets – at least two – and picking a set number of points to move the odds in your favor.
The most typical is 6 or 7 points. Using last Super Bowl’s odds, that might look like packaging Kansas City’s -3 point spread with the Under 56 total. A 6 point teaser would turn this into +3 and Under 62.
Winning both parts of that bet would have paid $9.09 on a $10 bet, which is higher than either alone. If either is wrong, though, the whole thing is a loss. When playing teasers, never cross 0 and try to always cross multiple common football numbers like 3, 7, 10, and 14.
Betting Live In-Game
Another way and strategy to bet are live during the game. People forget that you can make live bets as the game develops. The odds for these change throughout the game, so it’s important to keep up with what’s happening.
Even a few seconds can make the difference when it comes to a payout. It’s important to be careful here, though, and not make hasty bets. Stick to the original plan and bets you made when following the major lines.
Live prop bets can be fun to spice things up, but don’t put too much into those bets. Betting big that the team on defense will score next right before a fumble or interception can be a stroke of great luck. However, betting beyond your means because it looks like your original pre-game bet is going south is a bad idea.
Never, ever chase your betting losses – especially with impulsive live bets. You’re likely to dig a bigger hole for yourself. Focus your bets and strategy on research.
If you make live bets, do it only on an educated hunch or as a calculated small gamble. Keep a small budget for your more “wild” bets, and stick to it.
Don’t Forget Derivatives
Your bets don’t always have to be for the whole game. You can always bet on the first quarter or only the second half. This can be a great way to split up your strategy and hedge your bets.
Historically, the first quarter has always been low-scoring. Teams tend to be more cautious in the first 15, so this makes sense. The running average for the last 13 Super Bowls sits at under 7 points for the first quarter.
Betting an over/under on the first quarter for points can be a great way to make a safe bet or take a calculated risk. The oddsmakers know about the trend, so an under 7 is a likely prediction, which won’t carry a very big payout by itself. You could try to increase your payout with a teaser or a parlay, but you could also go against the grain.
If you think the scoring or defensive spread is inconsistent this year, you might bet the Over on the first quarter. Even if you think things will slow down and still hit Under for the overall game, an early risk may pay off. You could even pair it with a prop bet for exactly how much higher the point total will be in that quarter.
Pay Attention to Trends but Use Your Head
This is the most important of all the sports betting strategies and advice. Track how the lines move, follow what’s worked in the past, but don’t go crazy. Setting a plan and sticking to a budget are keys to success in football betting.
This means being consistent with your bets and creating a chaining narrative. It doesn’t matter if you play with parlays, teasers, or multiple unconnected prop bets. Create a vision that doesn’t lead to several contradicting bets.
Hedging your bets is safe but doesn’t lead to a big payout. Instead, you want to use research to plan a series of bets that reinforce each other. This means researching the teams and predicting how you think the game will go.
If you bet on the team with better offense to win, you’ll likely want to bet the Over on points too. If you feel your team will outperform the opponent’s defense, you should bet Under on defensive props. You can bet Under on the other teams’ interceptions or sacks, for example.
You should also reinforce your narrative even more with offensive props too. If you’ve done your research and backed a winning narrative, you’ll win big. If your overall narrative is wrong, you could still win individual prop bets, assuming they weren’t parlayed.
When researching, choose a reputable betting service. Those who use premium services themselves like Ace Per Head are preferable. Speed, reliability, safety, integrity, and a consistent experience are invaluable.
Advice for Super Bowl Betting
Good super bowl betting advice is hard to come by but boils down to a few key things. Set a budget, make a consistent betting plan, and know how the odds and bets work before you put any money down. Doing proper research, assessing trends, and trusting top betting companies are also key.
Check out our site for more info and advice leading up to Super Bowl LVI or anything else betting-related.